Run Stay? How to Decide?

All three of the most destructive California wildfires, in terms of structures destroyed, occurred in the decade of the '90s. Worse, 26 deaths resulted from these fires. Consideration of these bare facts, and almost two years of research, leads to these summary conclusions:

One: If you live in Topanga it is highly likely that you will confront a major wildfire--one that burns more than 500 acres. In the past 80 years Topanga has suffered a major wildfire at least once in every decade, often twice. Although the occurrence of wildfire is predictable, the interval between fires is not. Some authorities have speculated that it would be 10-20 years before regrowth of brush could support a full-blown wildfire. There is enough uncertainty in this regard so that no important decision should rest on assumptions about how long it takes before regrowth of brush will support a wildfire.

Two: Steep terrain, in addition to dryness and high winds, makes wildfires faster moving. In case you hadn't noticed, most of Topanga is very steep. Under typical wildfire conditions in Topanga, fire will move uphill faster than almost anyone can run. If you are close enough to the fire to think you might need to run for it, you may have already made a life-threatening mistake.

Three: Whether you elect to stay to protect your home or to evacuate as soon as possible, the chances of your home surviving a wildfire depend on actions taken well before a fire erupts. If you haven't done the clearing, if you haven't a plan, if you haven't made the investments of time and effort to acquire and learn how to use essential tools, you will be leaving your fate to chance.

Four: Any decision to stay or to evacuate must be based on these broad sets of factors:

First, under no circumstances should anyone remain behind alone. Nation-wide over a dozen firemen are killed every year in fighting wildfires, and many times that number are injured. A prime cause of these casualties is being taken unawares by a sudden change in the fire's behavior. You must have someone to watch your back.

Second, brush clearance alone is insufficient. To stay with reasonable safety also requires study of fire behavior, acquisition of tools and clothing, and practice.

Third, a wildfire is a stressful experience. How much risk are you willing to accept? How much risk and stress are you willing to impose on your family? The very young, the very old, and the physically handicapped should be gotten out of harm's way ASAP. In periods of extreme fire danger, evacuation of the most vulnerable household members may be called for before a wildfire breaks out in your neighborhood.

Fourth, in addition to brush clearance, you must mitigate the vulnerability of your home--the materials from which it is constructed, the extent of defensible space surrounding it, its siting in relation to the terrain.

Fifth, escape routes have to be evaluated in light of conditions at the time of use. Normally accessible routes may become dangerous due to then-existing conditions. Preparation to shelter in place may be the wisest choice.

Five: If your decision is to leave at once, you owe it to your neighbors and to the firefighters who might defend your house in your absence to leave your house in the most defensible possible condition. Firefighters may be professionals, but they are not kamikazes. This study provides checklists of things to do before leaving--such as closing, but not locking, all exterior windows and doors (and not forgetting the garage door).

Six: If you stay, above all, plan for your survival should things turn ugly, and rehearse your plan with what time you have. This may mean sheltering in place, taking advantage of your home's inherent resistance to fire. Outfit yourself, deploy your defenses, make yourself known. You should have planned with your family and neighbors so that individual efforts can reinforce each other.

Seven: However much individual preparation is necessary, preparation house-by-house is inefficient. There is much the community may do to lower costs and increase the effectiveness of preparation against wildfire. Just a few examples:

  • In cooperation with the Fire Department and any other concerned officials, identify, prepare and maintain more public refuge areas in addition to the three that exist now (the Community House, Topanga Elementary School and the Big Rock Recreation Area). For example, recent changes in the center of town may have made it the largest safe area in the Canyon. This is a technical issue, but the potential safety benefits are certainly worth the effort.
  • Organize brush clearance and preparedness planning on a neighborhood-wide basis to assure mutual support and minimize the impact on privacy and aesthetics.
  • Tighten the communications links between the Arson Watch, T-CEP, the schools and other civic organizations to enhance warning and the flow of good information.


Wildfires are dangerous whatever you do, wherever you are in their vicinity. Wildfires are not unitary phenomena--they burn with intensity that varies with fuel, terrain and wind conditions; they speed up and slow down; they change direction unpredictably and very fast. In 1993 a fire flashed from Old Canyon Road up the length of Hondo Canyon in less than 20 minutes--about the time it took for a 1961 fire to burn from Cheney to the Post Office Tract.